helen-louise (baratron) wrote,

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More laggy election live-blogging.

02:48 Normally, in an election, there is a marked swing from one party to another. It differs in size across the country and is affected by local issues, but it's possible to make a prediction. This time round, the swings have been all over the place. Labour to Conservative in some areas, Lib Dem to Conservative in others, Labour to Lib Dem in others, even Conservative to Labour! And that's excluding the various nationalist parties in the regions.

I think the BBC commentator, whose name I don't know, was absolutely right in his synopsis of what's been happening. When a popular Liberal Democrat candidate is standing again, they often keep the seat. When the popular LibDem stands down for an unknown new candidate, the LibDems may lose the seat. softfruit says that incumbency is a factor for all parties but moreso the LDs, worth about 1000-2000 votes.

02:57 17% Lab to LD swing in Merthyr Tydfil - but we still didn't win it!

02:58 Non-news of the night: David Cameron re-elected as MP for Witney. A wonderful collection of insane fringe candidates though, including "comedy terrorist"> Aaron Barschak dressed as Jesus with fake blood. (We always have loonies standing for fun/attention in seats where a party leader is the sitting MP).

03:07 The BBC is annoying us again with its bad editing. They've been doing live TV for decades, how is it that they're now chopping and changing from one scene to another seemingly at random. And why are they not showing all the declarations for key government and shadow government figures?

03:14 Liberal Democrat joy as we hold Dunbartonshire East, Cardiff Central and Brecon & Radnor.

03:23 Misreporting by the BBC as they say we hold Newton Abbot, which has actually swung to the Conservatives :( However, it's difficult to draw any conclusions from this as Newton Abbot is a new constituency this time round. The Liberal Democrat MP Richard Younger-Ross was MP for Teignbridge, which no longer exists.

03:31 We gain Burnley! 9.6% swing from Lab to Lib Dem! Excellent news as Burnley elected seven BNP councillors to its borough council in 2003 and one county council member in 2009. The BNP is, in their own words, "the only party which opposes mass immigration and surrender to the European Union", and in my words, a bunch of racists. Preventing them from gaining any more power is a Very Good Thing.

03:37 Ten minutes of excitement, as we hear that the Lib Dems hold Berwickshire, the "big Scottish named one" (copyright dannilion) -  Caithness S and E Ross, Bristol West, Norfolk North, and Southport.

03:48 Romsey & Soton N lost to Conservatives.

03:52 We gain Redcar from the incumbent Labour candidate with a massive swing - we only got 20.2% of the vote last time. 21.8% swing from Labour to LibDem, which has to be one of the biggest swings of this election. The anti-Peter Robinson swing was 22.9%.

04:13 LibDems hold Carshalton with an increased majority, and Inverness. A wonderful quote from Ian Hislop about the concept of a hung Parliament: "A government of all the talents. There's not many of them, but let's put them all in."
Tags: election 2010, politics, uk

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